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KMID : 1001320230500030115
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Social Welfare Policy
2023 Volume.50 No. 3 p.115 ~ p.144
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Trajectories of Welfare Exit After Entry into the National Basic Livelihood Security System
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Park Hyung-John
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Abstract
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This study aims to characterize welfare exit trajectories among recipients after entry into the National Basic Livelihood Security System(NBLSS) and to identify predictors for membership of the trajectory groups. The data used for the analysis is the merged data of individuals and households from the 1st∼17th waves of the Korea Welfare Panel Study(KOWEPS). Group-based trajectory model(GBTM) was used to identify the trajectory of welfare exit probability after entry into the NBLSS. The model identified four trajectories: “staying in NBLSS”, “exit within two years”, “exit after five years”, and “re-entering NBLSS after the temporary exit”. Multinomial logit analysis indicated individual labor income, number of employed household members, chronic diseases, relationship with the household head, entry into NBLSS after the reform, conditional benefits, and existence of children in the household were significant determinants of welfare exit trajectories. As another result, the trajectory of “re-entering NBLSS after the temporary exit” has the lowest public transfer income during the period of temporary exit. And their poverty depth was the deepest compared to other trajectories. Based on the results, I provided policy discussions about incentives for welfare exit in the National Basic Livelihood Security System.
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KEYWORD
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National Basic Livelihood Security System(NBLSS), welfare exit, poverty dynamics, group-based trajectory model, Korea Welfare Panel
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